February 11, 2017
THE EO IS INDEFENSIBLE:
Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home (Brian Michael Jenkins, 2/10/17, Rand)
The principal terrorist threat faced by the United States comes from residents who radicalize themselves and plot to carry out local attacks. Fortunately, their numbers have been relatively few. Despite constant exhortations from jihadist organizations abroad, their violent extremist ideology has gained little traction among America's Muslims. [...]Since 9/11, terrorists inspired by jihadist ideology have carried out 16 attacks in the United States: Seven involved fatalities and eight of them injured people. In the remaining case -- the would-be Times Square bomber in 2010 -- the device failed to detonate.This is a low number, especially when considering it encompasses a period of more than 15 years. In the 1970s, the U.S. experienced 50 to 60 terrorist bombings a year, although most of the attacks were not intended to kill but were meant to be symbolic violence.Some analyses might add a few more attacks to this list. The differences reflect judgments about motives, which can be murky.In addition to the attacks, there have been almost 80 jihadist terrorist plots over these same 15 years. Working together, FBI agents and local police have been able to uncover and disrupt more than 80 percent of these -- a remarkable record. In many cases, investigations began with tips from the Muslim community.A total of 147 people in the United States participated in attacks or plotted others that were thwarted by the authorities. Again, this is a low number -- an average of fewer than nine people a year since 9/11.Most of these plots and attacks -- 105 out of 147 -- were planned by U.S. citizens. Another 20 of the plotters were legal permanent residents, most of whom arrived in the United States as children. In other words, 85 percent of the terrorists lived in the U.S a long time before carrying out an attack -- they radicalized within the nation's borders.A total of 89 people died in the jihadist attacks. Every one of these deaths was needless and tragic. However, the added risk to public safety in a country that averages 15,000 homicides a year was statistically minuscule.The republic is not in peril.What is at work here is terrorism -- acts of violence calculated to create fear and alarm. It is often effective. Terrorism can also act as a condenser of society's broader anxieties. Illegal immigration has caused widespread concern, which amplifies the perceived terrorist threat.Had this temporary prohibition been in effect since 9/11, how many lives would have been saved? Not one.
Posted by Orrin Judd at February 11, 2017 8:34 AM
