OF COURSE, THE rIGHT STILL THINKS HE'S WINNING:

Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko's scandalous press conference last week was all over Russian media. Over the course of a seven-and-a-half-hour address, Lukashenko slammed Russia over a variety of grievances that have accumulated recently: what may have seemed like a sudden burst of anger was, perhaps, the logical next step in spiraling Belarusian-Russian relations.

The dispute between Minsk and Moscow is multifaceted, and new tensions are drawn out each month--from oil and gas to borders and foodstuffs. The crisis nourishes itself: negative news stories and mutual frustration give rise to new, unnecessary scandals--the arrest of pro-Russian publicists, Lukashenko's refusal to attend the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summits in St. Petersburg, and Minsk's decision to extradite Russian-Israeli blogger Alexander Lapshin to Azerbaijan, for example. 

The most recent source of tension is the decision of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to establish border controls between Russia and Belarus. This step indicates the de facto introduction of passport controls between the two countries for the first time ever. Had the FSB not announced its decision a few days before Lukashenko's press conference, the Belarusian president's address might not have been so emotional, but it would have been every bit as withering. And indeed, Lukashenko's speech was more emotion than politics: it was a way for him to get out his frustration.

At the beginning of his record-length address, Lukashenko avoided using the word "Russia" in much the same way Vladimir Putin avoids using the last name of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. But when he received a direct question about relations with Moscow, Lukashenko spoke for nearly an hour and a half, beginning with "the situation has gotten to the point where I can't conceal things anymore." And Lukashenko returned to this theme later, even when responding to a question about a different topic. [...]

[V]ladimir Putin seems to have become caught up in global politics and forgotten to pay attention to the little things--like disputes with Minsk, which have been delegated to hard-liner imperialists and pragmatist technocrats.  [...]

Any attempt by Moscow to convert Russia's long-term investments in Belarus into expanded influence on Minsk will be met with opposition. Just as Belarus itself has become used to independence, its permanent president has become unable to share power with anyone. Attempts by Minsk to return to the previous model of support, which Belarusians called "gas for kisses," will also be fruitless; the Kremlin isn't interested in this kind of relationship anymore. 

Even if Minsk and Moscow are able to resolve their current dispute, the standoff will go down in history, at least in Belarus. After Belarus's declaration of independence and the creation of its state infrastructure--its bureaucracy, currency, and armed forces--this conflict will be one of the most important stages in the country's movement away from Russia.

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