WINNING!:

Russia is frequently in the news these days, but its diplomatic successes at the start of the new year have been rather limited. Denials of Moscow's various misbehaviors aside, the most significant step over the just-concluded extended holiday season was President Vladimir Putin's visit to Japan in mid-December (RT, December 15, 2016). That visit generated high expectations and rampant speculation, particularly considering the scarcity of his foreign trips of late. Preparations continued for many months under tight secrecy. And at that time, many observers interpreted the series of statements from Moscow regarding Russia's absolute inflexibility on the territorial non-issue of the disputed Kurile Islands as preparations for a surprise (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 5, 2016).

Several Russian experts argued that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe had invested significant personal political capital into resolving the long-deadlocked bilateral dispute over the South Kurile Islands; it was unclear, however, whether Putin had any intention of reciprocating (Kommersant-Vlast, November 11, 2016; see EDM, December 13, 2016). The master plan in Moscow was to give Tokyo only the vaguest of promises--and to extract in return tangible concessions that would amount to a de facto abolition of the sanctions regime. Tokyo, however, had its own master plan long on promises. As a result, both leaders can now claim success--but neither has achieved anything close to the desired triumph. [...]

But in this wave of optimism on US readiness to normalize relations with Moscow, Russian commentators conveniently omit the impact of the unfolding investigation into Russia's interference in the US election campaign combined with the scandal about a supposed Russian "dossier" on Trump (Moscow Echo, January 14). Trump is still desperately trying to play all this down, but as the evidence mounts, the President-elect is being increasingly politically incentivized to deliver a punishing response to this unprecedented act of "hybrid" aggression against the US in order to erase the smudge on his legitimacy. As for sanctions, the plain reality is that the European Union has again extended them for another half year. And while preparing its package of "gifts" to Russia, Japan was careful not to deviate from this regime (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 16, 2016).

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