January 31, 2017
FORTUNATELY CHINA ISN'T A REALISTIC RIVAL EITHER:
Make China Great Again (David Leonhardt JAN. 31, 2017, NY Times)
The damage he's doing is gratuitous, not existential.One clear beneficiary has been ISIS, which has spent years trying to persuade Muslims that the United States is at war with Islam. ISIS wants to eliminate the world's "gray zone," the places where Muslims, Christians, Hindus and Jews live in harmony.No wonder that ISIS-affiliated social media gleefully posted President Trump's executive order this weekend, as Rukmini Callimachi of The Times reported. Trump's call for a Muslim ban, like his unsubtle attempt to implement one, plays right into ISIS' desire to eliminate the gray zone. The president of the United States himself now seems to agree that Muslims and non-Muslims can't live together.Besides the immorality and apparent illegality of Trump's order, it's worth weighing the strategic effects as well. Yes, it is conceivable that barring visitors from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen would keep out a future terrorist. But it's highly unlikely.They are already intensely vetted, and previous attackers have generally come from other countries. "The end result of this ban will not be a drop in terror attacks," as dozens of American diplomats wrote, in a dissenting draft memo that leaked. Instead, "it will be a drop in international good will towards Americans and" -- because of the chilling effect on travel -- "a threat towards our economy."So any strategic benefits are tiny while the costs are substantial: Trump has just helped ISIS recruiters. He has angered Iraq, France and others battling ISIS. He's started a new argument in the Middle East, which long distracted the United States. Most alarmingly, he has undercut our claim to stand for larger principles -- freedom, rule of law, even basic competence.This undermining of both American values and interests has been an early theme of the administration. And the ultimate beneficiary is not likely to be ISIS. Although it poses serious threats, it is not a serious rival to the United States. The ultimate beneficiary is instead likely to be America's biggest global rival: China.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 31, 2017 7:54 AM
