January 2, 2017
DEAD BABY WALKING:
"Don't underestimate tensions in the Assad camp," German lawmaker warns : German parliamentarian Omid Nouripour anticipates that Russia will distance itself from Assad in the long term. Right now, he says, the top priority is to combat IS - and for that, a comprehensive strategy is needed. (Deutsche-Welle, 1/02/17)
We shouldn't underestimate the tensions within the Assad camp. There have been many situations in which completely different, sometimes even opposing pronouncements came from the entourage of the respective governments. Obviously there are many things the Russians and Iranians don't agree on, either.The international community left a vacuum in Syria that Assad and his allies filled with bombs. But it's also the case that the problem of jihadism has a powerful impact on domestic politics in Russia. I don't believe that Russia has any interest in increasing the problem of jihadism in the Caucasus by stubbornly holding on to Assad - he is, after all, the main symbol for barrel bombs, chemical weapons and ruined cities. So I assume that in the medium term the Russians will have to distance themselves from Assad.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 2, 2017 4:45 AM