BARRY, COME BACK!:

Some tax cuts and spending increases are likely to be part of the 2017 budget, but not all of them. The new budget probably won't be balanced, but there are limits to the deficit spending that Republicans could find acceptable. And this is likely to become apparent rather quickly. The prospect of disappointment presents downside risks to equity markets, especially in the first half of 2017.

Trump's pick for budget director, Mick Mulvaney, said in his confirmation hearings last week that the national debt is the equivalent of an ordinary American family owing more than $250,000 on their credit cards.

Mulvaney, a Republican congressman from South Carolina, was part of the wave of fiscal-conservative Tea Party members elected in 2010, and he has been one of the most vocal advocates for cutting government spending. His long-held position that new spending must be offset by cuts elsewhere could put him at odds with Trump when it comes time to make good on the president's promise to invest $1 trillion in roads, bridges and other infrastructure. 

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