DEAD MAN WALKING:

How do you foresee the future of Syria?

Whether we like to believe it or not, there is indeed no military solution to the Syrian crisis. This means, among other things, that there is no future for Syria with Assad. His regime has presided over the death of around half a million people, as well as the displacement, both internal and external, of over 11 million Syrians in a civil war that has so far devastated much of the country's urban and critical infrastructure. 

Even if Assad wins the war, he will lose the peace afterwards. He will have to deal with emerging pockets of rebellion and resistance. This is to say that either the Syrian civil war could persist unabated for years to come, wreaking havoc in its wake, as it has so far. Or it will break down into a series of destabilizing yet resilient insurgencies, similar to what we saw in post-invasion Iraq, where the outcome was nothing but insecurity and terrorism. The fact of the matter is that under the existing circumstances, Syria without Assad, whether it be it through his personal resignation or negotiations for political transition, elections or referendum, is far from realistic and plausible. In a nutshell, I don't see a bright future for Syria.    

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