November 7, 2016


In Trump's Most Important County, a Surge of Hispanic Voters : Trump officials believe the Florida county of Miami-Dade can tip the must-win state their way. But an analysis of early votes shows eye-popping Hispanic numbers. (JoshuaGreen, 11/06/16,   Bloomberg Businessweek)

Miami-Dade County is the most important county in the country for Trump's chances, according to a campaign official familiar with the simulations.  [...]

Whether Trump can win over enough voters in Miami-Dade is another question. Nothing will be settled until Election Day. But a study of Miami-Dade's early voters that Smith conducted for Bloomberg Businessweek suggests Clinton is poised to benefit from an unprecedented surge of Hispanic voters.

There are 1.5 million registered voters in Miami-Dade county (56 percent of whom are Hispanic), including nearly 30,000 added during a last-minute voter-registration drive in October, after Democratic Party officials went to court to extend the deadline in the wake of Hurricane Matthew. Through Saturday, according to Smith, 707,844 county residents had already voted: 44 percent were Democrats, 30 percent Republican, and 25 percent had "no party affiliation," a group that tends to skew younger and Hispanic, and thus toward Clinton. The demographic mix of early voters also looks highly favorable to Clinton: 58 percent Hispanic, 17 percent African-American and 20 percent white. 

But the late registrants, Smith says, give the clearest indication that sentiment in Miami-Dade is running strongly against Trump. Of the 29,657 voters who registered last month, 41 percent are Democrats, 44 percent are unaffiliated, and only 12.5 percent are Republicans. "That's nuts," said Smith. "These are the barometers that indicate the hostility toward the GOP candidate." 

Posted by at November 7, 2016 4:29 PM