November 8, 2016


If Slate's live voter turnout forecaster is right, they'll call this election earlier than 1980.  Hillary is winning every "swing" state and already has more votes than the UR got in FL last time.

Traders Jump on 'Live' Polling Data, Send Stocks Higher (PAUL VIGNA, Nov 8, 2016, WSJ)

On Tuesday, though, websites Vice and Slate are providing what they are characterizing as "live" voting projections throughout the day.

To be sure, this is an experiment, and a controversial one. Regardless, the numbers are being put out there, and the market is noticing. With the Slate data showing Hillary Clinton leading in several key swing states, stocks have shot higher and bonds have fallen.

A number of traders say that people were either following the Slate data, or hearing colleagues in the market talking about it.

"That's what people I'm talking to are ascribing the spike to," Scott Frew of Rockingham Capital Partners said. He also noted that people are criticizing the site's methodology. The numbers from VoteCastr are projections based on samples polls and "real-time" tracking of Tuesday's vote. The numbers being presented are the latest projections of how many votes have been cast, rather than actual results.

Posted by at November 8, 2016 4:33 PM