October 8, 2016
THE LUCK OF THE CLINTONS:
Why the jobs report is good for stocks (Nicole Sinclair, October 7, 2016, Yahoo)
"This is a good number for the equity market," [Renaissance head of economics Neil Dutta.] said. "Steady growth in aggregate hours and gains in earnings imply solid consumer spending. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up ...This allows the Fed to move slowly as it implies rising potential growth," Dutta said.Incomes up, labor force growing, housing market strongIncomes in September grew the most since January, according to Renaissance Macro Research. Aggregate hours worked in September rose 9.4% month-over-month while average hourly earnings rose 0.2%. Total private income rose 0.6%, up 4.3% over the last year. Compared to headline inflation growth of 1.1%, this implies health gains in real income, according to Dutta. Average hourly earnings grew 2.6% over the last year and 2.8% so far this year.Also importantly, the closely watched participation rate rose to 0.1 percentage points to 62.9%, the highest level since March. The prime-age participation rate (those aged 25 to 54) rose 0.2 percentage points to 81.5%, the highest level in almost three years.In fact, as Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok pointed out, the jobs report marked a decline in the number of people outside the labor market for the first time in almost 20 years.
Like Bill, she's about to luck into an economy that's already growing and reap a Peace Dividend, when the GOP could have elected a Bush and gotten credit.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 8, 2016 9:56 AM
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