IF THE CIA WERE COMPETENT, ONE MIGHT THINK HIM A PLANT:

Back in March, when the U.S. elections still seemed far away -- back before anyone had heard the name Fancy Bear and before everyone knew John Podesta's risotto secrets -- I was in Moscow talking to a Russian who had previously worked in the Kremlin.

Over the course of a wide-ranging conversation, it became clear that we agreed on one key characteristic of Vladimir Putin. He called it the "Putin Paradox" and defined it thus: The Russian president's tactical instincts for how to seize an opportunity are so brilliant, and yet the strategic outcomes are almost invariably disastrous. [...]

[J]ust like the Crimean annexation (which led to sanctions and massive costs to the state treasury), the Donbass adventure (which led to more sanctions and has mired Russia in an expensive, undeclared war), and the Syrian intervention (where Putin backed away from an early withdrawal, leaving him stuck in yet another open-ended war), today's Russian achievement is poised to become tomorrow's debilitating disaster. Russians who chortled at the original WikiLeaks revelations and felt sly satisfaction at the havoc created by "their" hackers are now expressing concerns about possible U.S. retaliation and, more importantly, what this will mean for future Russo-American relations. As one bitterly grumbled, "Let's get used to sanctions until we're in the grave."

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