September 18, 2016
THERE IS NO SYRIA:
Would decentralizing Syria offer a path to peace? (David Iaconangelo, SEPTEMBER 17, 2016, CS Monitor)
The two simple realities are that there is no nation and Assad won't get to govern any of it.[T]he apparent differences in what each party involved means when they say "federalism" may illustrate how much diplomatic work separates the country from such a solution.For the Russians, it would include appointing members of government based on their ethnic and religious affiliations and establishing a regional council to represent local interests - but as University of Geneva professor Vicken Cheterian noted in March, the Russian version of federatsiya would likely keep more power concentrated in the hands of a strong central state.The Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, has rejected Russia's proposals out of hand, considering decentralization to be totally off the table. As the European Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a report released earlier this month, the regime is bound partly by its "nationalist credentials," a source of legitimacy for the Alawite minority that compose most of its ranks. And it also fears that once decentralization kicks off, the regime could eventually collapse. [...]The European Council's report cites a survey showing that a majority of Syrians living in opposition-held areas favor decentralization, and the opposition has welcomed such moves in the past. But they don't want an outright partition, either. And as the report says, "many Syrians, across both the opposition and the regime, share the perception that any move towards decentralisation would mean the eventual partition of the country."The Council goes on to outline a decentralized Syria that focuses just as much on economic fairness as political representation. In the years leading up to the war, it noted, the Assad regime had pulled back from distributing services and investment across much of the country, concentrating it in the west, where it still exercises control.Along with giving more power to local districts, it said, a decentralized Syria should distribute oil revenues, public investment and state jobs between governates according to population."The reality of five years of conflict has made clear, at least to some on the opposition side, that major reform of the system of governance is unavoidable."
Posted by Orrin Judd at September 18, 2016 6:56 AM
