September 30, 2016

A CHOICE OF JIMMYS:

Trump Is More Unpopular Than Clinton Is -- And That Matters (Harry Enten, 9/30/16, 538)

In every election, the candidate who was leading in net favorability ratings in late September won the Electoral College and the election. The campaign with the closest favorability margin, 2000, also featured the closest final result. This year, the net favorability differences aren't anywhere near as small. Since mid-September, Clinton's net favorability rating is 10 percentage points better than Trump's -- similar to the edges George W. Bush had in 2004 and Barack Obama had in 2008. Bush and Obama both won small but solid victories.

Indeed, if you were going to project the 2016 election using a simple linear regression based on the difference between candidates' net favorability ratings, you'd have Clinton winning by a little over 4 percentage points. That's slightly larger than the 3.1-point margin the FiveThirtyEight polls-only model currently forecasts. Again that suggests that Clinton may have some upside potential our model may not be showing.

Posted by at September 30, 2016 5:25 PM

  

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