August 20, 2016
THE RIGHT'S MONDALE:
Battleground Texas? (Nancy LeTourneau, August 16, 2016, Washington Monthly)
PPP released a poll from Texas today showing Trump leading Clinton by only 6 points. But here is the part that could signal a sea change.Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas. Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 20, 2016 8:19 AM