July 11, 2016


Libertarian Gary Johnson Could Spoil The Southwest For Trump (Christopher Huffaker, McClatchy)

Johnson is well known to voters in the Southwest as a former governor of New Mexico, and this election could put multiple states there in play. Johnson's experience as the CEO of a marijuana company might win support in perpetual swing state Colorado, and forecaster Nate Silver predicts that Arizona, where Johnson is averaging 8 percent, is the closest state between Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Johnson might also do well in Utah, where Mormons are "particularly rankled" by Trump's proposed temporary ban on Muslims entering the country, according to the Los Angeles Times. Johnson received 16 percent support in his best state poll there and won 13 percent in the most recent poll, which tied Clinton and Trump at 35 percent. In 2012, Mormon Mitt Romney took 72 percent of the vote in Utah.

Were Johnson to throw Arizona and Utah to Clinton, their combined 17 electoral votes would be enough to insulate her from losing Michigan's 16 electoral votes, if Trump's focus on the blue-leaning state pays off. Winning Arizona and Utah might allow her to lose every other swing state but Florida and still reach 270 electoral votes.

Posted by at July 11, 2016 12:33 PM