June 20, 2016

YEAH, BUT HE'LL GIVE IT TO THE COLOREDS WITH THE BARK ON...:

Trump's Economic Plan Would Be a Disaster for the US Economy: Moody's (Rob Garver, June 20, 2016, Fiscal Times)

A detailed analysis by a team led by Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi found that the Trump economic plan would be disastrous for the U.S. economy, leading to a prolonged recession and causing slower growth, higher unemployment and declining asset values. [...]

His trade policy appears to involve tearing up existing and prospective trade deals and slapping tariffs on many imports. His immigration plan would slash the number of new workers coming into the U.S., something economists almost universally agree is a bad thing.

"Quantifying Mr. Trump's economic policies is complicated by their lack of specificity," Zandi's team wrote. "The publicly available information is not sufficient to fully quantify all of his proposals."

However, working with the Trump team and making certain assumptions outlined in the report, they modeled what they expect would happen if Trump's proposals were fully implemented. It's not a pretty picture.

"[T]he economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump's economic proposals are adopted," the report says. "Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office.

"By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today. During Mr. Trump's presidency, the average American household's after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline."

Posted by at June 20, 2016 4:26 PM

  

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