June 15, 2016

AND IT'S DEGENERATING FROM A RATHER INSIGNIFICANT PEAK:

The Islamic State of Decline: Anticipating the Paper Caliphate  (Cole Bunzel, 6/15/16, Jihadica)

It is still too early to predict the collapse of the Islamic State, but it is telling that the group's own media, which usually keep to a narrative of unstoppable progress and battlefield success, have begun signaling decline. Last week, an editorial in the most recent issue of the Islamic State's weekly Arabic newsletter, al-Naba' ("News"), well captured this new outlook. Titled "The Crusaders' Illusions in the Age of the Caliphate," it offers a grim view of the future, both for the Islamic State and for those seeking to destroy it. I provide a full translation below.

Much of the editorial echoes the downbeat sentiments expressed by the Islamic State's official spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-'Adnani, in his recent audio statement of May 21 of this year. While in that statement 'Adnani was sure to project a measure of confidence, remarking that the Islamic State is "becoming stronger with each passing day," some of his comments betrayed the starker reality of a caliphate under siege. This was clear in the following queries: "Do you think, America, that victory will come by killing one or more leaders?" "Do you reckon, America, that defeat is the loss of a city or the loss of territory?" Responding to his own questions, 'Adnani declared that killing the Islamic State's leaders would not defeat the greater "adversary"--the group itself--and that taking its land would not eliminate its "will" to fight. Even if the Islamic State were to lose all its territories, he said, it could still go back to the way it was "at the beginning," when it was "in the desert without cities and without territory." The allusion here is to the experience of the Islamic State of Iraq, which between 2006 and 2012 held no significant territory despite its claim to statehood. For this reason it was derided as a "paper state." 'Adnani is thus suggesting that even if defeated the Islamic State could take refuge in the desert, rebuild, and return anew.

The editorial in al-Naba' emphasizes the same themes. Like 'Adnani's speech, it suggests that the Islamic State could soon degenerate into a paper caliphate bereft of its land and leadership.

The simple fact is that it could never be a state because that would just ease target acquisition.
Posted by at June 15, 2016 12:26 PM

  

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