THE CANCER DID NOT METASTASIZE:

Obviously, we can't run such a counterfactual election, but we can examine Republican nomination contests occurring at the state level across the country right now. After all, if the GOP really is experiencing a hostile takeover, we should be observing this beyond just the presidential level. Party changes tend to occur from the ground up, rather than the top down.

To narrow down the study a bit, let's first look at open-seat Senate and gubernatorial primaries in competitive states where there's substantial competition for the Republican nomination. I wanted to see what sorts of Republicans are running and which candidates seem to be leading the contests.

What I found was a substantial number of experienced, mainstream Republicans leading in their races for major office, which does not suggest a party that is cracking up.

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