March 19, 2016

THE MIGHTY CALIPHATE WAR MACHINE....:

HOW REALISTIC IS LIBYA AS AN ISLAMIC STATE "FALLBACK"? (Geoff D. Porter, 3/17/16, CTC Sentinel)


[T]he Islamic State in Libya's momentum is slowing, including setbacks in Derna, Benghazi, and Sabratha. Moreover, recent attempts to expand the territory under its control have failed as it runs up against territory controlled by powerful, violent non-state actors. Libya also lacks many of the attributes that the Islamic State has exploited in Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State's slowing momentum, its inability to expand, and the differences between the Iraqi/Syrian and Libyan landscape all beg the question of just how feasible it would be for the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to shift to Libya. While there is no doubt that the Islamic State would remain a violent threat in Libya and elsewhere were it to be degraded in Iraq and Syria, it would be a poorer and more constrained organization, deprived of personnel, revenue, and the fundamental narrative tropes of governance and sectarianism that it has used to "remain and expand" (bâqîya wa tatamaddad) in Iraq and Syria.

Posted by at March 19, 2016 8:01 PM

  

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