RETREAT!:

According to Reuters, on Thursday, a Russian defense ministry spokesman said that Russia would in fact be reducing its troop numbers in Tajikistan as it reorganized its troops there from a division into a brigade. By phone, he told Reuters, "In plain language, its headcount will decline slightly, but its mobility and ability to react quickly to any situations will improve."

Russia's detachment in Tajikistan remain its largest foreign-based force. The troops, collectively referred to as the 201st Motorized Rifle Division, are stationed in two locations in the country: Dushanbe and Qurgonteppa. Until December, a regiment was stationed in Kulob but according to Reuters it was withdrawn to Dushanbe.

The Reuters story came a few days after Asia-Plus, an independent Tajik news source, ran a story noting that TASS, the Russian news agency, had reported that Russia's Central Military District said it was reorganizing its base in Tajikistan, leading to a numerical reduction but a mobility increase.

The motivation behind the reversal is unknown. "The move could point to tensions between Moscow and Dushanbe," writes Reuters, but it's perhaps simpler to point to economics and local tensions. Russia's economy, battered by sanctions and low oil prices, contracted an estimated 3.8 in 2015, according to the World Bank. In Central Asia this has meant that Russia has been unable to fulfill funding promises. For example, Kyrgyzstan this month revoked an agreement with Russia, freeing Moscow of obligations to fund several hydropower projects and freeing Bishkek to find funders who can pay up. Reorganizing its military presence in Tajikistan may be nothing more than a cost-saving measure.

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