February 20, 2016

POOF!, THE DRAGON:

China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Dwindling Rapidly (KEITH BRADSHERFEB. 18, 2016, NY Times)

As markets around the world have churned, China has long taken comfort in having what in the financial world amounts to a life preserver: its vast holdings of other countries' money. [...]

The country's reserves have shrunk by nearly a fifth since the summer of 2014 -- and more than a third of the shrinkage has been in the last three months.

By the end of January, reserves stood at $3.23 trillion, a level that has prompted speculation about how much lower Beijing will let them go.

With a smaller pot of reserves, Chinese leaders have less room to maneuver, should the economy undergo a sudden shock. The reserves situation also weakens China's control over the value of its currency, the renminbi.


MORE:
The Golden Generation : Why China's super-rich send their children abroad. (JIAYANG FAN, 2/22/16, The New Yorker)

A study by the Bank of China and the Hurun Report found that sixty per cent of the country's rich people were either in the process of moving abroad or considering doing so. ("Rich" was defined as being worth more than ten million yuan--around $1.5 million, a considerable fortune in China, though not stratospheric.) The Chinese are currently transferring money out of the country at a rate of around four hundred and fifty billion dollars a year. Most of that money has gone into real estate. According to the National Association of Realtors, Chinese buyers have become the largest source of foreign cash in the U.S. residential real-estate market.

Moneyed people leave China for various reasons. Some are worried about pollution. Others want to secure a good education for their children. Zhou Xueguang, a sociology professor at Stanford who received his bachelor's degree in China, told me, "The competition in the Chinese school system is known to be brutal." He went on, "There are only so many slots in good schools, and, at a certain level, it doesn't matter how much money you have--you won't be able to get in." But, for affluent Chinese, the most basic reason to move abroad is that fortunes in China are precarious. The concerns go deeper than anxiety about the country's slowing growth and turbulent stock market; it is very difficult to progress above a certain level in business without cultivating, and sometimes buying, the support of government officials, who are often ousted in anti-corruption sweeps instigated by rivals.

John Osburg, an anthropologist who spent years studying successful businessmen in Chengdu, told me that "there's always a fear that, if the officials to whom they're tied are brought down in an anti-corruption campaign, it could bring trouble for them, too, and lead to the seizure of their assets. There's also a concern that business rivals who may be better connected to people in the government could use their ties to the party-state to bring down their competitors." Some people he knew considered being on Forbes's annual list of the richest people in China a curse. "The people on that list, for several years in a row, within a year or two of appearing, would be the target of some kind of criminal investigation or they'd be brought down in a corruption scandal," he said.

In Vancouver, Weymi mentioned the pervasiveness of such anxieties: "Some of my relatives in Shanghai who are officials--all clean ones, of course--have told me stories about their friends who are fretting about the recent corruption crackdown. In China, it's not just about what you did but what your network of relationships is."

This is the first time that China's rich have sought to emigrate in significant numbers.

Posted by at February 20, 2016 10:19 AM

  

« BECAUSE OF HIS POLICIES?: | Main | 2500 YEARS LATER THE ABORIGINALS STILL HADN'T FIGURED ONE OUT: »