February 2, 2016

ODD?:

The Great Escape from China (Kenneth Rogoff, 2/02/16, Project syndicate)

It might seem odd that a country running a $600 billion trade surplus in 2015 should be worried about currency weakness. But a combination of factors, including slowing economic growth and a gradual relaxation of restrictions on investing abroad, has unleashed a torrent of capital outflows.

Private citizens are now allowed to take up to $50,000 per year out of the country. If just one of every 20 Chinese citizens exercised this option, China's foreign-exchange reserves would be wiped out. At the same time, China's cash-rich companies have been employing all sorts of devices to get money out. A perfectly legal approach is to lend in renminbi and be repaid in foreign currency.

A not-so-legal approach is to issue false or inflated trade invoices - essentially a form of money laundering. For example, a Chinese exporter might report a lower sale price to an American importer than it actually receives, with the difference secretly deposited in dollars into a US bank account (which might in turn be used to purchase a Picasso).

Now that Chinese firms have bought up so many US and European companies, money laundering can even be done in-house. 

they essentially export just cheap labor.

Posted by at February 2, 2016 3:09 PM

  

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