January 23, 2016
WE CAN'T HELP IF YOU DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND YOUR PROBLEMS:
Europe is in crisis. Once more, America will have to step in to save us (Natalie Nougayrède, 23 January 2016, The Guardian)
Europe today is in such a shambles that it is not absurd to ask whether the US should again do something about it, or whether the old continent even matters to American strategic interests any more. The answer to both questions should be a resounding "yes".It is obviously unrealistic to think the US is likely to repeat the kind of assistance it deployed in 1947. But the US urgently needs to seriously re-engage on European matters. Failing that, it risks seeing the European project unravel, with more disorder pouring into and across the continent and, ultimately, the loss of key allies.Europe is currently struggling with the danger of Brexit and major security threats (which include terrorism, and Russian aggression), as well as the political fallout of the refugee crisis. It's not that US action in itself would miraculously solve all these problems, but its aloofness has arguably contributed to making them worse.On three key European issues America needs to speak out more and act more - and soon. First, Barack Obama needs to make it plain that a British departure from the EU would not only risk breaking Europe altogether, but would spell the end of anything that still smacks of the "special relationship" between the US and Britain. Some American officials say it in private, but unfortunately not in public: Britain must remain a member of the EU if it is to retain any significant interest for the US, and the international stage at large.Second, the US needs to show more commitment to Europe's security. Some things have been done within Nato since Russia launched a military offensive in Europe; but more US political leverage is needed if a common European defence policy is to become fact. It is not enough to state, as Washington often has, that Europeans need to "share the burden" of collective security.Third, the US cannot continue to treat the refugee crisis destabilising Europe as if it were a far-flung problem that doesn't affect its direct interests. Around 4.5 million refugees have fled the Syrian civil war. The US has taken just 2,600.
Europe has three problems, that we can only help to a very limited degree : (1) a most likely unreversible demographic decline; (2) public alienation from an illegitimate transnational government; and (3) a failure of Southern Europe to reckon with the end of the Second Way.
As to the first, it would take a Christian revival to reverse the population implosion, but admitting as many immigrants as they can entice to come would help too. They should particularly focus on trying to steal Latinos away from us by offering free housing.
With regard to the second, the institution of Europe should be stripped down to just a trade union, which should join NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
The third requires a transition from defined benefit to defined contribution social welfare and, given the decline of labor, should steal a march on us and adopt a guaranteed basic income. Some of the money for this can come from doing away with their militaries altogether, which are a nostalgic waste of money.
The authors "solutions" would only exacerbate the problems Europe faces.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 23, 2016 8:36 AM