October 9, 2015

THE GREAT THING ABOUT THE DIAGRAM...:

Why Kevin McCarthy's Speaker Bid Was Doomed (HARRY ENTEN, 10/08/15, 538)

The importance of "outsiderness" in the GOP has been evident for a few years. We saw it in votes on the debt ceiling in 2011, the fiscal cliff in 2013, and the budget battles of the last month. As the political scientists who maintain the DW-Nominate system have pointed out about the second dimension: "Although Congress is nearly one-dimensional liberal-conservative, enough stress has built up to clearly divide the Republican Party on many issues."

If all this sounds familiar, it might be because it's also playing out in the Republican primary for president. Ben Carson and Trump don't rank as highly conservative in our ideological rankings as most other 2016 candidates. Nor do they rank as super conservative in the minds of Republican voters. Yet, Trump and Carson currently rank first and second, respectively, in polls of the GOP race. Why? Carson and Trump are outsiders. In FiveThirtyEight's graphical view of the GOP race, Carson and Trump are far, far away from the establishment.

Neither Carson nor Trump has ever held elected office. Carson is a soft-spoken, nice guy who doesn't get entangled playing politics. Trump is the exact opposite: fighting everyone under the sun. Typical politicians are a little bit of each.

The normal rules of politics seem to apply less to the Republican Party each passing day.

...is that Trump is outside of it.
Posted by at October 9, 2015 1:42 PM
  

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