THE eND OF hISTORY ONLY SEEMS LIKE A CIA PLOT:

In Ukraine, though, the crackdown on protesters failed. By the time Mr. Yanukovych tried to clear the streets by force, as the Kremlin advocated, his halfhearted attempt at strongman tactics backfired, compelling him to flee.

Angered by what he saw as another C.I.A. operation to overthrow a Russian ally, Mr. Putin struck back: He annexed Crimea and attempted an even bigger land grab in eastern Ukraine, called Novorossiya by expansion enthusiasts.

Again, the costs of these brief gains piled up. As a result of sanctions and falling energy prices, the Russian economy has shrunk to $1.2 trillion from $2 trillion in 2014. And NATO, once an alliance in search of a mission, is now focused again on deterring Russia.

Mr. Putin has also been compelled to abandon the Novorossiya project: His proxies in eastern Ukraine neither enjoy popular support nor run an effective government. And his actions have guaranteed that Ukraine will never join his Eurasian Economic Union or line up with Russia again.

His policy toward another ally, Mr. Assad, has failed, too. Despite blocking Security Council resolutions against Mr. Assad's government, providing weapons to Damascus and encouraging Syria's allies to come to the regime's defense, Mr. Putin's efforts have done little to strengthen Mr. Assad's rule. After four years of civil war, Mr. Assad governs less territory and faces more formidable foes. That's why Mr. Putin had to intervene -- to save his autocratic ally from defeat.

In the short term, Russia's Syrian bombing campaign has energized the Syrian Army and its allies to launch a counteroffensive against opposition rebels -- that is, against everyone except the Islamic State. But in the long run, Russian airstrikes alone cannot restore Mr. Assad's authority over the whole country.

Mr. Putin is adept at short-term tactical responses to setbacks, but less talented at long-term strategy. Even with no response from the West, Mr. Putin's foreign adventures will finally fail, especially as domestic economic problems continue to fester.

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