The Kremlin's war in Ukraine is turning into a quagmire.The Kremlin's war in Ukraine is turning into a quagmire. Militarily, it is a stalemate -- which, given the vast imbalance between Russian and Ukrainian capabilities, amounts to a Ukrainian victory. Ideologically, the war is a bust, as the Kremlin's hopes of converting southeastern Ukraine into "New Russia" have been effectively, and perhaps permanently, shattered. Economically, the war and occupation of both Crimea and the Donbass have imposed ruinous costs on Russia, whose economy has already been battered by declining global commodity prices and Western sanctions. Socially, both regions are on the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe for which Russia would be blamed. In sum, Putin's plans of weakening Ukraine have backfired. Ukraine is slowly getting stronger, while Russia is getting weaker.

Time is, therefore, on the side of Ukraine and the West. They should avoid offering Putin any relief as long as Russian and proxy troops continue to occupy Ukrainian territory; on the contrary, they can and should press for additional concessions. Given Ukraine's strengthened military and the threat of further sanctions, Putin will be unable to escalate the confrontation. Ironically, Putin's self-defeating aggression in eastern Ukraine is now limiting his scope of action more effectively than anything the West could have devised.