September 27, 2015

THE MOST COACHING DEPENDENT SPORT WITH THE LEAST DEPENDABLE COACHES:

Tomlin a trendsetter in going for 2-pointers (Ray Fittipaldo, 9/27/15, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

When NFL owners voted in May to change the extra-point rules for this season, everyone had their predictions on which coach would be the trendsetter and embrace the analytics. Would New England's Bill Belichick take the math and run to more points? Or would NFL contrarian Chip Kelly, coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, be the first to kick aside the old-school approach to PATs?

Turns out it is Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, whose offense is 3 for 3 on 2-point conversions through the first two weeks of the season. The Steelers went for 2 after their first touchdown Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers and again midway through the second quarter.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the Steelers became the first team since 1998 to make a 2-point conversion in the first quarter of a game since October 1998, when the Indianapolis Colts faked an extra point. The previous time a team made a 2-point conversion in the first quarter of a game from a traditional offensive alignment was the Denver Broncos in 1997. [...]

Twenty one of the 32 teams in the league have not attempted a 2-point conversion yet this season. Only the Colts and Buffalo Bills have attempted more than one.

The math suggests going for 2 after every touchdown is the correct call for coaches, at least for those with confidence in their offenses.

The league average on 2-point conversions is around 50 percent. With the extra-point kick being moved back to a 33-yard attempt, where kickers make an average of about 93 percent of their attempts, it makes more sense to go for 2 from a strictly mathematical perspective.

Posted by at September 27, 2015 8:29 AM
  

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