September 5, 2015

FEAR OF A BLACK HAT:

The Iran Deal and the End of the Israel Lobby (Jonathan Chait, 9/03/15, NY Mag)

The miscalculations by opponents of the Iran deal began with a poor grasp of public opinion. They imagined they could foment a broad public backlash, and opponents frequently, and triumphantly, cited opinion polls showing more respondents disapproved than approved of the Iran deal. But the results of these polls varied widely. Small changes in wording produced wildly varying results, reflecting the fact that few people knew or cared much about the issue. Turning a foreign-policy issue with no immediate salience to American security -- even a nuclear-armed Iran, a worst-case scenario, would not involve an attack on Americans at home or abroad -- into an issue Americans would actively care about was never realistic. [...]

The deal's opponents not only misjudged public opinion as a whole, but more astonishingly, they misjudged the state of American Jewish opinion in particular. Congress might have been moved to oppose the Iran deal if the American Jewish community had viewed it as an existential threat to Israel. But Jews did not, on the whole, take that view. A detailed survey of American Jewish opinion by The Jewish Journal found that American Jews support the deal, 53 percent to 35 percent.

You just can't spin Iran into a plausible threat to either America or Israel.  It's a threat to Sunni Arab authoritarians and ISIS, which is a good thing.

Posted by at September 5, 2015 9:43 AM
  

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