August 19, 2015

THERE NEVER WAS A NATION:

Iran Deal Is Shaping the Iraq War (Noah Feldman, 8/19/15, Bloomberg View)

[B]eyond an interest in the Byzantine manipulations of Iraqi politics, why should the rest of the world care about Abadi's move or Maliki's displacement?

The answer lies in the effects of the U.S.-Iran deal, which is now before Congress but is being treated by regional actors as a fait accompli. Abadi's move on Maliki reflects, through a glass darkly, the realignment of regional politics in light of the Iran deal. Where once Maliki was perceived as pro-Iran by Iraqi Sunnis and the U.S., today Abadi is pursuing a new approach in which, he is betting, U.S. and Iranian interests will be closely aligned, and maintaining a multi-sectarian, unified Iraq is no longer an inviolable goal. And the Iranians, having abandoned Maliki to his fate, seem to be on board.

There was always going to be a Shi'a state and a Kurdistan.  The interesting question was always whether the Sunni Arabs could pull themselves together enough to be a minority in the Shi'a state or declare an independent Sunni state.  Or whether they prefer a chaos in which they reside in a free-fire zone.

Posted by at August 19, 2015 5:29 PM
  

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