August 29, 2015
FRUITS OF THE DEAL:
Are there any reasons for hope in the Middle East? Maybe. (Henri J. Barkey and David F. Gordon, August 27, 2015, Reuters)
There is an increasing possibility for new geopolitical alignments throughout the region. The confluence of the growing fear in both Saudi Arabia and Iran of the threat posed by Islamic State; the weakening of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's policy shift to cooperate with the United States in Syria, and Moscow's and Washington's growing shared interests in steering the Saudi-Iran rivalry onto a less escalatory path, while also creating a broad coalition against Islamic State, is creating real political fluidity.As diplomatic moves accelerate, the United States and its allies look to be preparing a serious onslaught on Islamic State in both Iraq and Syria. The opening of Turkish air bases to coalition aircraft, manned and unmanned, will enable the allies to prepare for a major ground offensive by local allies to recapture Mosul. Iraq's third-largest city has been under Islamic State control for more than a year. More inchoate is the parallel jockeying around Syria's political future, and whether a compromise framework can be found to end that country's civil war.
The simple new reality of the Middle East is that new that the Amnerican/Shi'a alliance is explicit there's no point in the Sunni Arabs resisting. Focus can turn to their near enemy instead--the Sunni Arab Salafists/Islamicists in their midst. 9-11 Could hardly have back-fired more completely.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 29, 2015 7:51 AM
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