August 15, 2015

AND LOOK AT WHAT LONDON IS DOING TO LABOUR::

The Peril to Democrats of Left-Leaning Urban Centers (Joel Kotkin - August 10, 2015, RCP)

[A] cadre of modern mayors is minting a host of ideologically new urban politics that put cities at odds with millions of traditional urban Democrats. This trend is strongest on the coasts, but is also taking place in many heartland cities. Bill de Blasio is currently its most prominent practitioner, but left-wing pundit Harold Meyerson says approvingly that many cities are busily mapping "the future of liberalism" with such policies as  the $15-an-hour minimum wage, stricter EPA greenhouse gas regulations, and housing policies intended to force people out of lower density suburbs and into cities.

For the Democrats, this urban ascendency holds some dangers. Despite all the constant claims of a massive "return to the city," urban populations are growing no faster than those in suburbs, and, in the past few years, far slower than those of the hated exurbs. This means we won't see much change in the foreseeable future in the current 70 to 80 percent of people in metropolitan America who live in suburbs and beyond. University of Washington demographer Richard Morrill  notes that the vast majority of residents of regions over 500,000--roughly 153 million people--live in the lower-density suburban places, while only 60 million live in core cities.  

This leftward shift is marked, but it's not indicative of any tide of public enthusiasm. One-party rule, as one might expect, does not galvanize voters. The turnout  in recent city elections has plummeted across the country, with turnouts 25 percent or even lower. In Los Angeles, the 2013 turnout that elected progressive Eric Garcetti was roughly one-third that in the city's 1970 mayoral election.

Bolstered by this narrow electorate, liberal pundits celebrate the fact that 27 of the largest U.S. cities voted Democratic in 2012, including "red" state municipalities such as Houston -- but without counting the suburbs, where voter participation tends to be higher. An overly urban-based party faces the same fundamental challenges of a largely rural-oriented one--for example, the right-wing core of the GOP--in a country where most people live in neither environment.

Posted by at August 15, 2015 7:02 AM
  

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