June 28, 2015

JUST AS IMPORTANT AS THE SHARE...:

How Small Gains With Black Voters Could Boost GOP in 2016 (DANTE CHINNI, 6/28/15, WSJ)

A Small Share Makes a Big Difference.

Look at Florida, the nation's largest swing state. Mitt Romney won 4% of the black vote there. If he had won 10% of the African American electorate, he would have gained enough votes to edge President Obama. In Ohio, the second-largest swing state, Mr. Romney would have drawn nearly equal to Mr. Obama--to within one percentage point--had he won 10% of the African American vote, up from the 3% of the vote he garnered.


...will be the turnout.  The Democrats aren't going to have a candidate who blacks will turn out in Qbama-like numbers to vote for, nor is Jeb the sort of nominee they'll turn out to vote against. 

Posted by at June 28, 2015 5:26 PM
  

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