May 9, 2015

THEY KNOW THEY CAN'T SURVIVE SUCCESS:

Can Iran even handle success in the nuclear talks? (J. Matthew McInnis, May 4, 2015, AEI)

The Iranian leadership is finally settling in to the reality of a potential nuclear deal come this summer, and bracing for the political and economic impact. Optimism in Tehran for a deal remains high, as best shown by Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's overweening tour de force in New York last week touting a likely agreement and the potential for a new post-deal Middle East order. But, even if a deal is reached, Iran will still face significant domestic and foreign challenges. Iran's need to shore up its resources for the long regional fight ahead--and for the daunting economic restructuring needed at home--will only strengthen its determination to get a deal. But the US needs to understand Iran's insecurities could produce some harsh crackdowns internally or seemingly erratic or escalatory behavior in the region. Iran may not know what do with success once it has it.

Rouhani encourages foreign investment...: President Rouhani continued efforts to convince Iran's elite that an influx of foreign investment after an agreement should be welcomed instead of feared. At a press conference on April 30, the president stressed that without the presence of foreign capital and technology, growth for Iran will be very difficult. Rouhani is continuing the public debate he began January 4, and arguing that Iran's foreign and economic policies should prioritize enriching the state over preserving old ways of doing business and funding ideologically-driven adventures abroad. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and their deep networks of former personnel within the state economy remain nervous about what opening to the West will mean for their interests. And Rouhani knows it.

Posted by at May 9, 2015 8:05 PM
  

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