May 13, 2015

ONE ECONOMY TO RULE THEM ALL:

Is the US economy actually leaving China behind? (Derek Scissors, 5/13/15, AEI)

Credit Suisse has been measuring net household wealth in most countries since 2000. This is a difficult task, and errors are unavoidable. Nonetheless, Credit Suisse has found consistent numbers from applying comparable methodology over the past 15 years. Further, their figures for the United States are fairly close to the Federal Reserve series on American net private wealth.

At the end of 2000, Credit Suisse put net private American wealth at $42.9 trillion, compared to $4.7 trillion for China: a ratio of more than 9:1. The Credit Suisse numbers do capture China's rise. By 2007, the figures sat at $64.5 trillion and $15.4 trillion, respectively. China's net private wealth had more than tripled, and the size ratio of the two economies had fallen sharply, to well under 5:1.

In 2008, of course, the financial crisis hit. It was seen as speeding up America's decline and paving the way for China's rise. Closing on seven years later, the outcome looks quite different.

The latest Credit Suisse figures are from the middle of 2014. Chinese private wealth stands at $21.4 trillion, and American wealth at $83.7 trillion. It would have obviously been unreasonable to expect Chinese wealth to triple again, but the absolute increase from 2007 to mid-2014 was only $6 trillion, versus $8.75 trillion from 2000 through 2007. China grew only 40 percent over this period.

The financial crisis certainly affected the United States as well. American private wealth growth dropped to 30 percent from 2007 to mid-2014. But the pace at which China is overtaking the United States slowed dramatically, and the size ratio barely budged. From 2007 to mid-2014, the private Chinese economy moved only from 24 percent to 26 percent of the size of the private American economy.

Moreover, the slightly shrinking ratio may be trumped by the absolute wealth gap. This gap rose from $49 trillion to $62 trillion, a bigger expansion than that seen from 2000 to 2007. On this score, China is not catching up - it is losing ground by the trillions.

Posted by at May 13, 2015 7:19 PM
  

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