March 17, 2015

IN THE END IT'S REALLY QUITE SIMPLE...:

A deal bigger than Iran (Jackson Diehl, 3/15/17, Washington Post)

Even though its nuclear infrastructure has expanded, inspectors and Western intelligence agencies have not detected a "military dimension" to the program since 2003.

While it's possible that Iran would respond to a collapse in the talks by building bombs, that wouldn't be in keeping with its previous practice. Nor would it be easy to carry off at a time when the economy is being hammered by plummeting oil revenue as well as sanctions. History suggests Tehran would make a show of installing more centrifuges while being careful not to cross any red lines drawn by Israel or the United States. [...]

In a new paper, Martin Indyk of the Brookings Institution, a former Obama Mideast envoy, argues, as I have, that the United States must choose between forging a new regional order with or against Iran. That choice, in turn, depends on the nuclear deal. "Without an agreement, it is impossible to imagine cooperation with Iran on regional issues," writes Indyk. "With an agreement, collaboration . . . becomes possible."

The potential for such collaboration is deeply alarming to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran's other Middle Eastern enemies, for whom its pursuit of nuclear capability is a subset of its campaign to become the region's hegemon. 


...our side believes in a democratic Middle East, though messy, theirs believes in the "stability" of dictatorship.

Posted by at March 17, 2015 7:52 PM
  

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