February 2, 2015

SHORT-TIMER:

Europe Should Call Greece's Bluff (Guy Hands, 2/02/15, Bloomberg View)

Thankfully, an immediate post-election crisis was avoided when the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras stressed that his country would not default on its debts. But in demanding a renegotiation over the terms of repayment, he hopes to achieve the same ends through different means. Europe's leaders cannot afford to let him have his way. They have to be clear and firm in requiring Greece to pay and do what it promised.

This is not from any desire to punish the Greek public. They have experienced severe declines in living standards in recent years. But they have also benefited hugely from their adoption of the euro and, since the crisis hit, a huge write-off of their debts and the enormous sums poured in from hard-pressed taxpayers in northern Europe. 

It is true Greek gross domestic product has fallen by 25 percent since 2009 -- an almost unprecedented reduction for a developed economy. But GDP remains close to twice the level it was when Greece adopted the euro in 2002. Real wages may have fallen over 20 percent since the crisis -- but they, too, are still above 2001 levels.

Times are very difficult for Greece. But the impact of default and abandonment of the euro would be far worse on Greek living standards in the short term. Its government would struggle to meet public sector salaries or welfare payments, the country's banking sector would be thrown into crisis, savings would plunge in value and the cost of imports would soar.

This explains why, despite all the difficulties, a continent-wide survey late last year found that 59 percent of Greeks still believed the euro was good for their country compared with 29 percent who were against it. This is a higher level of support than in Italy, France or Spain. The latest EU poll also found the proportion of British citizens who believe they would have a better future outside the EU is higher than the proportion of Greeks who think the same.

Greece has a TFR of about 1.4..  It has no long term.

Posted by at February 2, 2015 1:14 PM
  

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