POLITICS IS THE SAME EVERYWHERE IN THE ANGLOSPHERE:

The Tories have a professional, Lynton Crosby, running their campaign. He should be able to point out the basics: a clear message is required, and it needs to be repeated. He is unlikely to be fooled by the received wisdom that this year's general election will belong to the small parties. Labour and the Tories still have about two thirds of the vote, according to today's polls, just as they did at the general election. The collapse of the Liberal Democrats has allowed peculiar phenomena such as the rise of the Greens. Overall, however, this election remains very winnable.

Anyone who believes that Ed Miliband is still cruising to victory has not kept their eye on Scotland. A Guardian/ICM poll, one of the last of 2014, suggests that Labour could lose all but three of its 41 Scottish seats to a resurgent SNP under the formidable Nicola Sturgeon. Even if she does nowhere near that well, she will still take more seats than Nigel Farage's Ukip. The SNP already has more members than Ukip and the Liberal Democrats combined. It is Sturgeon's party that is the new third force in British politics -- and its rise comes almost exclusively at Ed Miliband's expense.

Polls also show that Miliband is more unpopular in Scotland than elsewhere. His visits to Scotland during the referendum last year showed the sheer extent of the damage that he is capable of inflicting on his own party. All this bodes well for the Tories: David Cameron has his flaws, but he's a good campaigner. Miliband, by contrast, can turn a bacon sandwich into a debacle. [...]

Elections in Britain tend to be won on the back of hope rather than fear. In spite of their battered reputation in many areas, the Tories remain the party most strongly associated with aspiration. With real incomes finally growing, it ought to be possible to concentrate minds on the prospect of self-betterment. If the Conservatives are to win, they need to be able to convince people that a Tory victory will make it more likely they will be able to buy a home of their own, afford holidays, choose a good school for their children, or have NHS services which work for them rather than the health unions.

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