January 27, 2015

HE STANDS TO DAMAGE HIS VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CHANCES:

Everybody Hates Chris Christie (HARRY ENTEN, 1/26/15, 538)

Since 1980, two types of candidates have won presidential nominations when an incumbent president wasn't running in their party: those who were unfamiliar to voters early in the campaign, and those who were both well known and well liked.

Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, is well known but not particularly well liked. [...]

Some nominees, such as Democrats Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton, weren't well known at this point in the campaign. Some, such as Republicans Bob Dole and Ronald Reagan, were very well known and popular. There was George W. Bush in 1999, who was particularly well liked, even if he wasn't universally known. But no prior nominee had a net favorability rating more than 10 percentage points below where you'd expect given his name recognition.

Christie is 25 percentage points off the pace. His net favorable rating among Republicans in an average of YouGov polls so far this year, a December Monmouth University poll and a late November Quinnipiac University poll is just +19 percentage points. That was despite 77 percent of Republicans being able to form an opinion of him. Given his high name recognition, you would expect him to have a net favorable rating of +45 percentage points.

Posted by at January 27, 2015 1:42 PM
  

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