January 9, 2015

CIRCLING THE DRAIN:

Japan's birth rate problem is way worse than anyone imagined (Ana Swanson January 7, 2015, Washington Post)
 
The data above, drawn from a recent working paper from Tokyo's Waseda University, shows just how bad Japan has been at forecasting its fertility rate since 1965. Government projections have been almost comically wrong, as the government repeatedly interpreted the sharp decrease in the fertility rate as a temporary dip rather than a sustained trend.

The paper argues that the effects of an aging population on deflation are more complicated than typically thought - that aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. 

Posted by at January 9, 2015 4:32 PM
  

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