January 30, 2015

BOSTON SPORTS ARE OUR GIFT TO AMERICA:

The Patriots And Seahawks Are The Best. This Could Be The Worst Super Bowl Ever. (NATE SILVER, REUBEN FISCHER-BAUM and NEIL PAINE, 1/30/15, 538)

So what if the pregame story lines have been asinine and absurd? On Sunday, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will be among the most talented teams to take the field in the Super Bowl.

According to FiveThirtyEight's NFL Elo ratings, this year's Seahawks are the fifth-best team to participate in a Super Bowl since the AFC-NFC merger. And the Patriots aren't far behind. The average Elo rating of the teams this year is the second-best in a Super Bowl since that merger, trailing only Super Bowl XIII when the Dallas Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers. [...]

But it's not only that the Seahawks and Patriots are strong teams: They're just about evenly matched. The Vegas line opened as a pick 'em, and most sports books have the Patriots as mere one-point favorites. Elo, which loves the Seahawks, differs slightly here: It has Seattle as 2.5-point favorites. But that's partly because the system, in its simplicity, punished the Patriots for their meaningless Week 17 loss against Buffalo. Without that game, the Patriots' Elo rating would be 1756, which would make Seattle only one-point favorites and which would vault this matchup ahead of Super Bowl XIII into the top slot of all time.

Posted by at January 30, 2015 4:10 PM
  

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