THERE'S ZERO CHANCE ANYONE CAN PROP IT UP THAT HIGH:

A "structural transition has been reached," analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) wrote this week, and the ability to determine oil prices has shifted from OPEC to the U.S. The report, entitled "The New Oil Order," argues that it's time for American oil producers to slow down in the face of weak demand growth around the world and the quick pace of change. Goldman predicts that U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil will hit $75 a barrel during the first half of 2015 and that Brent will settle around $85 a barrel, about where it is now.

The shale boom in the U.S. isn't likely to pull back until oil gets so cheap that people can't make money drilling for it. There are a lot of estimates of the break-even price for U.S. shale producers. Some think it's around $80 a barrel, others think it's closer to $60, and it's obviously not going to be the same for everyone. 

Oil is selling for roughly $83 a barrel on the global market. That's bad news for Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, among others. They need the black stuff to trade at far loftier levels in order to balance their budgets.

Iran's budget, for example, is built on oil at $135 dollars per barrel, according to data from Deutsche Bank and Thomson Reuters compiled by DoubleLine Capital.

Russia has oil budgeted at $100, while Saudi Arabia will break even at $95 per barrel.

"All the oil producers are feeling it. Now the question is who can withstand it the most," said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at the Price Futures Group.

Flynn claims that energy producing nations will continue to pump up production because they don't want to risk losing market share.

"It's like a staring contest of who can last the longest selling oil below their budget point. Whoever can hold out longest is going to win," he said. "They're eating at each other."

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