October 29, 2014

HOW LATE WILL THE NETWORKS CALL IL?:

A Nerve-Wracking Finish for Democrats (Stuart Rothenberg, Oct. 28,. 2014, Roll Call)


While two races are likely to go to a runoff (Louisiana in December and Georgia in early January), Republicans now appear well-positioned to take over six Democratic seats: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.

Colorado and Iowa continue to be more difficult to call.

Republican Rep. Cory Gardner seems to have a slight edge in Colorado, and Republican Joni Ernst is no worse than even money in Iowa. If both win, a Republican takeover of the Senate is virtually guaranteed. Even if only one wins, GOP control will be likely.

Democrats now seem to have only two opportunities: Kansas and Georgia.

Republican Sen. Pat Roberts is drawing a very dangerous 45 percent in hypothetical ballot tests in Kansas and running even with independent Greg Orman. But Republicans have a strong advantage in TV advertising in the final week, and the state's GOP bent presents a challenge for Orman.

In Georgia, Republican David Perdue has only himself to blame for the fact that he is running about even against Democrat Michelle Nunn. But the race is complicated for Democrats, since the oddly timed early January runoff presents considerable challenges for Nunn.

If control of the Senate rests on the Georgia runoff, Nunn and national Democrats will find it difficult to make the election about anything other than Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Posted by at October 29, 2014 7:22 PM
  

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