September 8, 2014

IT'S NOT THE THINGS YOU DO THAT TEASE:

Senate GOP Gains At Least 7 Seats (Stuart Rothenberg, 9/08/14, Roll Call)

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don't show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn't be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates' name recognition and resources or of the election's dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November. [...]

Of the seven Romney Democratic seats up this cycle, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are gone, and Arkansas and Louisiana look difficult to hold. Alaska and North Carolina, on the other hand, remain very competitive, and Democrats rightly point out that they have a chance to hold both seats.

But I've witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms, and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there. Since my expectations constitute little more than an informed guess, I generally keep them to myself.

This year is different. I am sharing them with you.

Posted by at September 8, 2014 7:08 PM
  

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