July 31, 2014
60(%) in '14:
Republicans' Senate Chances Rise Slightly to 60 Percent (The Upshot, JULY 27, 2014, NY Times)
Posted by Orrin Judd at July 31, 2014 8:37 PMFor the last month, we've been adding one or two polls a day to The Upshot's Senate forecasting model. Today, we update all 36 races, based on estimates from a YouGov online panel that covers every congressional and governor's race across the country.The panel, asked for its preferences in collaboration with CBS and The New York Times, is unusual in its scope: It comprises more than 66,000 people living in states with a Senate race this year. YouGov, a polling firm, also conducted online interviews with roughly half of the panelists in previous years, allowing it to know how they voted in the past.With the addition of the YouGov estimates to our model, the overall outlook for the Senate remains roughly the same. The Republicans appear to have a slight advantage, with the most likely outcome being a Republican gain of six seats, the minimum they need to finish with a 51-to-49-seat majority.