March 31, 2014

THE BLACK COFFEE PARTY:

Why Republicans can be even more optimistic about taking the Senate (JOHN SIDES, March 31, 2014, Washington Post)

Democrats' prospects for 2014 do not look rosy.  There is little chance that they will retake the House, and a good chance they will lose seats. Even worse, there is a significant chance that they will lose control of the Senate. Our forecasting model said as many as two months ago. That forecast continues to square with the sense of many analysts -- even those who mocked the forecast. [...]

One key piece of information is whether candidates have held an elective office before and, if so, which one.  Unsurprisingly, political science research has long shown that candidates who have held elective office and higher levels of office tend to do better on Election Day.  They usually run better campaigns and make fewer mistakes, if only because they've done it before.

As we have begun to incorporate candidate experience into the model, our initial sense is this: Republicans may have a far better chance of winning control of the Senate than we or other analysts previously thought. Here is a preliminary estimate: The GOP could have as much as a 4 in 5 chance of controlling the chamber.

The wonders of adult supervision. Posted by at March 31, 2014 3:36 PM
  
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