March 9, 2014

IT'S THE RELIGIOUS PARTY, NOT THE SECULAR ONE:

Four Factions, No Favorite (Ross Douthat, 3/08/14, NY Times)

A better framework is suggested by Henry Olsen, writing in The National Interest, who argues that Republican presidential campaigns are usually defined by four factions rather than two. One faction is centrist (think John McCain's 2000 supporters, or Jon Huntsman's rather smaller 2012 support), one is moderately conservative (think the typical Mitt Romney or Bob Dole voter), one is socially conservative (think Mike Huckabee or Rick Santorum backers), and one is very conservative but more secular (think Gingrich voters last time, or Steve Forbes voters much further back).

The moderately conservative faction holds the balance of power, which is why the party usually flirts with ideologues but settles down with a safer, establishment-endorsed choice. But different campaigns take very different paths to this result.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan basically worked from the right to the center, consolidating secular and religious conservatives and then wooing enough moderate conservatives to win.

In 1996, Bob Dole relied on moderate conservatives to fend off a centrist (Lamar Alexander), a social conservative (Pat Buchanan) and a secular conservative (Forbes).

In 2000, George W. Bush used support from moderate conservatives and religious conservatives to defeat both McCain's centrist insurgency and Forbes's lesser challenge from the right.

In 2008, McCain combined his original centrist base with enough moderate conservatives to win the nomination -- a trick Romney basically imitated in 2012.

Jeb has the easiest time combing the first three and the fourth is always noisy, but so ugly it doesn't matter at the national electoral level. It's confined to the Beltway. Posted by at March 9, 2014 6:53 PM
  
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