March 4, 2014

60 in '14:

Poll: Democrats' advantage on key issues is not translating to a midterm-election edge (Dan Balz and Scott Clement, March 3, 2014, Washington Post)

Political handicappers rate Republicans as favorites to maintain their House majority and say the GOP has a legitimate opportunity to gain the six seats it needs to take control of the Senate. 

The Post-ABC survey affirms those projections, showing Republicans in a stronger position than Democrats in the states with Senate races this fall and more than holding their own in the battle for control of the House. In the 34 states with Senate races, 50 percent of voters say they favor Republicans and 42 percent favor Democrats. [...]

This "generic" vote question is not a pure predictor of the outcome of House races, however. Less than half of eligible voters are expected to cast ballots, and the size of Republicans' typical midterm edge is unclear. In October 2006, Democrats held a double-digit advantage on this barometer. That proved enough of a margin, with Democrats capturing control of the House that November. But in the month before Republicans made historic gains and took control of the House in 2010, this indicator still showed narrow support for the Democrats.

Posted by at March 4, 2014 11:36 AM

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