MORE THAN ANYTHING, THE UR DEMONSTRATES THE IMPORTANCE OF AVOIDING LEGISLATORS:

The senators have spoken. The problem is that's what senators are mostly known for doing: talking. They may make good presidential candidates, but in 2016 the political bias is going to be for chief executives. Republican voters tend to be fond of governors; they see the job as good training for the White House. You sharpen a set of skills that more closely track with the ones you'll need in the Oval Office. With the voters so sick of Washington politicians, the political incentive is to stay away from senators because--no matter how much they behave like insurgents--they still have the smell of Washington on them. Finally, Republicans have been vocal for a long time that President Obama's failures flow from his lack of executive experience. Given this, it is hard to imagine that enough voters would want to replace him with another one-term senator who has built his reputation on nothing more than the quality of his speeches. (Unsurprisingly, Walker thinks the GOP is going to nominate a governor in 2016, too).

That narrows the field down to the pool of leading current and former Republican governors: Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Rick Perry, and Walker. All of those men have something to recommend them, but "no one checks as many boxes as Walker does," as an Iowa GOP strategist puts it. Walker has near hero status in the grassroots for taking on Wisconsin's public sector unions. Cruz talks about taking stands on principle, but he lost his fight. Walker took a stand, was targeted by the full force of the Democratic machine, and stayed alive. He won a recall election with a larger margin than his original victory. He raised $30 million for that race, so he knows how to tap wealthy donors. Social conservatives also consider him one of their own for his pro-life views and his pedigree: His father was a Baptist minister.

Jindal and Perry have supporters in conservative circles, but Jindal can't match Walker's union-slaying story and Perry's accomplishments won't help him overcome the memories of his disastrous 2012 run. If the incentive is to pick a Christie alternative who can survive, it also helps if the candidate comes from a battleground state--even better if they come from a swing state in the Midwest. Walker also brings helpful connections to Iowa, that early caucus state. Besides governing in nearby Wisconsin, Walker grew up in Iowa. Right now GOP operatives describe the competition in the Hawkeye State as one between Rand Paul (whose forces control the state party) and Sen. Ted Cruz (who excites the base).

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush hails from a swing state, but he himself has admitted that he is out of step with the Republican Party on immigration. He may still be noodling a run, but he could easily be painted as a GOP moderate--and that space is already occupied by Christie.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) said Tuesday that he supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants but that federal immigration reform efforts miss a key element of the debate.

In an interview with the Wausau (Wis.) Daily Herald editorial board, Walker said the debate should focus on making it easier to immigrate rather than on what to do with immigrants already here illegally and border security.

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