THANKS, WOODROW:

As Middle East analyst Murtaza Hussain recently observed: "Syria and Iraq, formerly unified Arab states formed after the defeat of their former Ottoman rulers, exist today only in name." What will emerge could be a fragmented, easily manipulated region.

This is why Syria's civil war is now a geopolitical battle for regional domination, with multiple fractures along sectarian lines. As is now clear, no country is really free of the charge of interfering in Syria. While Shia-majority Iraq has attempted to portray itself as neutral, it has permitted Iranian flights to use its airspace to carry weapons to President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Iran, too, has long used its alliance with Syria to pursue its interests in the Levant, which include support for Hezbollah in Lebanon. On the ground, Hezbollah, now openly fighting in Syria to keep Assad in power, asserts that "war is coming to Aleppo," the ancient city that is the heart of the anti-Assad rebellion.

Indeed, according to Lakhdar Brahimi, who serves as Joint Special Representative of the United Nations and the Arab League for Syria, there are an estimated 148 groups, big and small, fighting in the country. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Qatar - which Middle East commentator Saeed Naqvi has called the "most vulnerable Sunni Kingdoms" - attempt "to divert popular discontent along sectarian, Shia-Sunni lines."

This ancient fracture, papered over by Sir Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot 97 years ago in their secret agreement, has now swallowed Syria, with Assad portrayed as some sort of Alawite ogre. Many Western diplomats appear to be of the same superficial cast of mind as Sykes and Picot, believing that Assad's fall from power would remove Syria from the Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis.

But will it? And who or what will replace Assad? Surely not the ragtag groups fighting Assad's regime, even if the United States now supplies some of them with arms, as President Barack Obama's administration recently announced.

Recent history suggests just how malleable the elements in play in Syria really are. Consider Saudi Arabia's actions there. As Bruce Riedel, an ex-CIA analyst and former National Security Council member, recently noted, "Ironically, [Saudi intelligence chief Prince] Bandar was crucial to the transition in Syria from Hafez Assad to Bashar back in 2000, assuring key Alawite generals, then in the regime, that Bashar was up to the job and had Saudi support." Now the same Prince Bandar "is trying to get arms to the Sunni rebels to oust Bashar."

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