IT'S THE RAPPROACHMENT WITH AMERICA THAT WILL SAVE THE ECONOMY:

While the last-minute nomination came as a surprise to many, it could be expected that the news would lead to a positive response from the key economic and business players in the country. Immediately after his registration, the price of gold coins (a main indicator of market trends) and foreign currencies started dropping. In fact, the Iranian rial appreciated by about 4% compared to the US dollar within one day. 

More interesting than the market reaction was the emergence of news that segments of the powerful Motalefeh Party (the representative of the old merchant community in the Bazaar) would support Rafsanjani in the race. This is a very significant development as the Motalefeh had traditionally always supported the conservative candidates in Iranian elections. However, it also indicates that even the Bazaaris expect Rafsanjani to play a more positive role in managing the economy as opposed to other leading candidates.

There are diverse reasons for the overall positive reaction of market players to Rafsanjani's candidacy. Emotionally, Rafsanjani is still known as the politician who put an end to the Iran-Iraq war in 1988. He was the one who persuaded then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini to drink the "chalice of poison" and accept the cease-fire with Iraq. That day was one of the most significant turning points in modern Iranian history and some believe that a similar event will be needed to generate a new positive momentum. This historical fact bears symbolic significance, particularly when we realize that many Iranians compare the current conditions to the economic misery that had dominated Iran in the 1980s. Rafsanjani is seen as the political figure who can restore some normalcy in the Iranian economy.

Furthermore, Rafsanjani was Iran's president during the post-war reconstruction era when many of Iranian industries were revived and when the country invested heavily in  building domestic capacity. The same industrial units that emerged under Rafsanjani (and later Khatami) presidency, were dealt a heavy blow under the Ahmadinejad policies. Therefore, many industrialists and market players hope for a more balanced set of economic policies in a Rafsanjani government.

Finally, Rafsanjani has always been seen as a pragmatic "crisis manager" in Iranian politics. Not just for the political elite, but also for many average citizens, Rafsanjani is a more credible political figure to address the current crises in the economy, foreign policy and domestic affairs. Approaching the age of 80, Rafsanjani is also seen as an experienced politician who will not allow the same type of trial-and-error mentality that the Ahmadinejad camp produced over the past eight years.

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